How not to be surprised (and run your business when things seem out of control)
- andrea38295
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Updated: 3 hours ago
I woke up to a headline that surprised me recently. Luckin Coffee, a China-based competitor to Starbucks, announced their intention to acquire Blue Bottle Coffee, the California-born specialty brand currently owned by Nestlé.
Why was I surprised? I remember visiting Luckin Coffee in New York just last year, shortly after they opened their first US locations in June 2025. There were lines around the block. The vibe was different: tech-first, "grab-and-go" efficiency combined with a surprising level of brand confidence. But even then, to imagine how aggressively they’d leap from "newcomer" to "acquirer," taking over a crown jewel of the American coffee movement? I didn’t see it coming.
Running Our Companies in the Face of an Onslaught
It’s not just coffee. The year 2026 has already brought a series of "Sputnik moments" that none of us anticipated. The news cycles are so jarring it’s impossible to keep up. Headlines feel like fiction, and geopolitical forces are so volatile we can’t tell who our friends are, let alone our long-term trading partners.
In a traditional crisis, the instinct is to tighten the hatches. We cut costs, narrow our focus, and wait for the storm to pass. But in an onslaught, that strategy is a death sentence. An onslaught isn't a temporary storm; it's a permanent change in the climate.
Broadening Your Peripheral Vision
The reason today’s business environment takes us by surprise is that the most significant shock waves aren't coming from the competitors we recognize or from forces we’ve dealt with before. They are coming from a fundamental shift in the physics of business strategy.
To navigate an onslaught, we need to trust experts with deep expertise in domains we might not understand—experts who might make us uncomfortable because they challenge our core assumptions about how value is created.
The New Map: Pascal Coppens
In the case of China, I recommend you read the just-published book "China’s Next Miracle" by Pascal Coppens. Pascal is a radical voice who has spent decades doing business as a China insider and now as a person who focuses on helping non-Asian teams understand China’s motivations and priorities. He argues that we have been fundamentally misreading the Chinese model. In December 2025, Xi Jinping referenced the book in his speech to the nation.
While the West often focuses on a "Blue Ocean" strategy—seeking uniqueness and high margins from day one—the Chinese model often follows a "Red Ocean Strategy." They enter crowded, brutal markets, solve massive customer needs through rapid iteration and scale, and only then use their "reserves" to move toward premium uniqueness.
The Luckin/Blue Bottle deal is a perfect example of this. Luckin mastered the "Red Ocean" of mass-market coffee in China, survived a massive restructuring, and is now using its scale and capital to buy the "Blue Ocean" prestige of Blue Bottle.
Try this… |
What You Must RecalibrateIf you are an executive or manager today, you cannot afford to wait for the next surprise. You must insert these questions into your next strategy session:
|
Pascal’s work isn't a doomsday scenario; it’s a recalibration tool. It provides the practical guidance needed to avoid being blindsided. By shifting from a "moat" mentality to a "buoyancy" mentality, we can keep commerce flowing—even when the waves are higher than we ever imagined.
